Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?
Lumber cost uncertainty has grown in 2025, driven by the threat of higher tariffs—particularly on Canadian softwood lumber—and stagnant U.S. production despite rising capacity. U.S. sawmills have not scaled output to meet demand, with utilization rates falling to 64.4% in Q1, and employment declining as a result. High prices and reduced foreign competition have lessened the incentive for expansion, leaving domestic mills unable to satisfy national lumber needs.
