10/27/2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

New home sales jump 12.3 percent in September and 33.9 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single?family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, up 12.3% from August and 33.9% year-on-year. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was $418,800, down 3.3% from August and 12.3% year-on-year. The average sales price was $503,900, down 3.6% from August and 4.9% year-on-year.

The seasonally?adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This inventory represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate versus 7.7 months in August and 9.7 months in September 2022.


Pending home sales rise 1.1 percent in September, down 11 percent year-on-year

Pending home sales increased in September, up 1.1% from August. Month over month, contract signings increased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but decreased in the West. Pending home sales fell 11% year-over-year, and were lower in all four U.S. regions compared to one year ago. The Northeast PHSI increased 0.8% from last month to 63.1, a loss of 12.7% from September 2022. The Midwest index expanded 4.1% to 74.3 in September, down 9.2% from one year ago. The South PHSI rose 0.7% to 87.1 in September, retreating 10.7% from the prior year. The West index declined 1.8% in September to 55.3, dropping 12.9% from September 2022.


U.S. output index edges up in October, especially for manufacturing

At 51.0 in October, the headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 50.2 at the end of the third quarter to signal a modest uptick in business activity. Growth in output was the strongest since July, albeit only slight overall. Demand conditions at manufacturers improved for the first time since April, while service providers saw a slower drop in new orders.


3Q2023 GDP rises at 4.9 percent, fastest rate since the end of 2021

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.