12/1/2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

October pending home sales fall to lowest level since index was started in 2001

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) dropped 1.5% to 71.4 in October, the lowest number since the index was originated in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions declined 8.5%

The Northeast PHSI jumped 2.7% from last month to 64.8, although representing a loss of 6.5% from October 2022. The Midwest index contracted 0.4% to 73.8 in October, down 10.3% from one year ago. The South PHSI decreased 1.9% to 85.6 in October, declining 7.1% from the prior year. The West index fell 6.0% in October to 51.8, dipping 10.8% from October 2022.


Case-Shiller Index up 0.3 percent in September and 6.6 percent since January

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Composite rose by 0.3% in September, marking eight consecutive monthly gains since prices bottomed in January 2023. The Composite now stands 3.9% above its year-ago level (up from a 2.5% annual gain last month) and 6.6% above its January level. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.7%.


New home sales fall 5.6 percent in October but up 17.7 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single?family houses in October 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. This is 5.6% below the revised September rate of 719,000, but is 17.7% above the October 2022 estimate of 577,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2023 was $409,300, down 3.1% from September and 17.6% year-over-year. The average sales price was $487,000, down 5.5% from September and 10.4% year-over-year. The seasonally?adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 439,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate versus 7.2 months in September.